Karviná vs Plzen – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Karviná 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Karviná 1-2 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.00 xG and Plzen 1.05 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.87 / defence 0.82 against Plzen attack 1.09 / defence 0.78, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 32% | Draw 34% | Plzen 34%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 56%, Plzen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Plzen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights