Karviná vs Plzen – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.87x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
34%
2.92
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.05
1.05
Plzen xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Karviná and 1.05 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.