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Prediction vindicated as Pardubice edge out Karviná 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Karviná 1-2 at Town Stadium Karvina, Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.12 xG and Pardubice 1.65 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.91 / defence 1.30 against Pardubice attack 1.06 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 25% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 49%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 66%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Pardubice's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.29 PPG, Pardubice 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights