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Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat Karviná 0-3 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.44 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.51 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.07 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 35% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 38%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 66%, Mlada Boleslav 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.31 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights