🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Karviná 0-4 at Městský Stadión, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.39 xG and Hradec Králové 1.60 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against Hradec Králové attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 33% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 42%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 58%, Hradec Králové 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.15 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights