Karviná 2-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates České Budějovice at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and České Budějovice meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
České Budějovice have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
České Budějovice arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Karviná lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 50% versus České Budějovice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 58% | České Budějovice 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.40 xG and České Budějovice 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.616 / defence 1.633 | České Budějovice attack 0.850 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.205. Karviná's attack strength of 0.616 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing Karviná's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Karviná games / 54 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 31% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 43%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | České Budějovice 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Karviná 40% | České Budějovice 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 31% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Karviná 1.40 / České Budějovice 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.616 / def 1.633 | České Budějovice attack 0.850 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.67
České Budějovice xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs České Budějovice kick off?
Karviná vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Karviná 2 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Karviná vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs České Budějovice part of?
Karviná vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 31% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Karviná and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and České Budějovice?
Record (3 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 2W.
What form are Karviná and České Budějovice in?
Karviná (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Karviná's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.85x) against Karviná's defence (1.63x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
31%
3.19
25%
3.98
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.07
1.67
České Budějovice xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
6%
16.99
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Karviná and 1.67 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná's recent record stands at 4W 4D 16L from 24 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 16L across 24 games — 0.75 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Karviná against 0.75 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 3W 1D 8L from 12 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 0W 2D 10L across 12 trips, a 0.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.04 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 4W 4D 16L in their last 24 games (0.67 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 5W 3D 16L in their last 24 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or České Budějovice away?
Karviná's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.83 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Karviná have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 20 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Karviná
1
Draws
2
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and České Budějovice?
From 7 meetings on record, Karviná have won 4, České Budějovice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and České Budějovice?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 50%, České Budějovice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Karviná and 67% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 42% of games; České Budějovice in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Karviná's recent matches and 58% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Karviná's matches and 67% of České Budějovice's.
Do Karviná and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat České Budějovice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat České Budějovice 2-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.40 xG and České Budějovice 1.67 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.62 / defence 1.63 against České Budějovice attack 0.85 / defence 1.46, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 31% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 43%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 58%, České Budějovice 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.67 PPG, České Budějovice 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.