FK Jablonec 1-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FK Jablonec welcome Plzen to Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FK Jablonec stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FK Jablonec have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Plzen — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from FK Jablonec's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for FK Jablonec, 2 for Plzen and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended FK Jablonec 2–3 Plzen — a Plzen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Plzen trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 63% and Plzen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 54% | Plzen 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FK Jablonec surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Plzen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.44 xG and Plzen 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.085 / defence 1.094 | Plzen attack 1.449 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.201. Plzen have an above-average attack rating of 1.449, which lifts their away xG to 1.90. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 54 games and Plzen's last 54.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 28% | Draw 24% | Plzen 48%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.54 | Draw 4.17 | Plzen 2.10. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.44 / 1.90) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FK Jablonec's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 70% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 28% | Draw 24% | Plzen 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.44 / Plzen 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.085 / def 1.094 | Plzen attack 1.449 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Plzen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Plzen xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Plzen FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Plzen kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
FK Jablonec 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Plzen part of?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 28% chance of winning, Plzen a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FK Jablonec and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.08) and Plzen's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 54 games and Plzen's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
28%
3.54
24%
4.17
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.34
1.90
Plzen xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
15%
6.71
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
4%
23.72
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.90 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 16W 20D 23L from 59 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 34W 10D 15L across 59 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 10W 12D 7L from their last 29 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 16W 5D 8L across their last 29 away games, a 1.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.02 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Plzen in 61%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Plzen
Blended
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ FK Jablonec vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 16W 20D 23L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Plzen have gone 34W 10D 15L in their last 59 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.45 PPG; Plzen away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Plzen have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: FK Jablonec 2-3 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 66%, Plzen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FK Jablonec) and 62% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Plzen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of FK Jablonec's games and 62% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FK Jablonec and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of FK Jablonec's matches and 62% of Plzen's.
Do FK Jablonec and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 83% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out FK Jablonec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat FK Jablonec 1-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.44 xG and Plzen 1.90 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.08 / defence 1.09 against Plzen attack 1.45 / defence 0.84, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 28% | Draw 24% | Plzen 48%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 54%, Plzen 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.