Karviná 1-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karviná at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Town Stadium Karvina plays host to Karviná versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 17 August 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Karviná's home record at Town Stadium Karvina: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Town Stadium Karvina this season.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Karviná's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Bohemians 1905 have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Karviná's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bohemians 1905 have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 58% versus Bohemians 1905 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 61% | Bohemians 1905 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.50 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.936 / defence 0.952 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.790 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.186. Data: 34 Karviná games / 34 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 51% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 22%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 1905 4.55. Karviná hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Bohemians 1905 lead the H2H ledger, but Karviná carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 40% | Bohemians 1905 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 51% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Karviná 1.50 / Bohemians 1905 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.936 / def 0.952 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.790 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Karviná (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bohemians 1905 xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Town Stadium Karvina.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Karviná 1 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 51% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Karviná and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Bohemians 1905?
Record (8 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 4W.
What form are Karviná and Bohemians 1905 in?
Karviná (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Karviná's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.79x) against Karviná's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.70
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.40
0.89
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
5%
20.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Karviná and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Karviná and 0.89 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná come into this having played 36 games, going 14W 8D 14L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.11 PPG from 36 outings (10W 10D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Karviná against 1.11 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Karviná's home form reads 7W 4D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.12 points per game from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.00 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 14W 8D 14L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Karviná's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.47 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Karviná
3
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Bohemians 1905 0-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 41%, Bohemians 1905 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Karviná) and 41% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Karviná have failed to score in 35% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Karviná's recent matches and 35% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Karviná's recent games and 41% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Karviná 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Karviná 1-2 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.50 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.89 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 51% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 22%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 61%, Bohemians 1905 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.39 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.