Hradec Králové 2-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Teplice at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (Middle Play-offs - Final). Kick-off is Saturday 25 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hradec Králové stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hradec Králové at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Teplice — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Hradec Králové have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Hradec Králové's games and 60% of Teplice's (from Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Hradec Králové, 1 for Teplice and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended Hradec Králové 1–0 Teplice — a Hradec Králové win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Teplice trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus Teplice 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 48% | Teplice 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hradec Králové surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Teplice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.80 xG and Teplice 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.949 / defence 0.889 | Teplice attack 0.852 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Teplice's defence rating of 1.241 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hradec Králové's projected output up. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 60 games and Teplice's last 60.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 56% | Draw 25% | Teplice 19%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.80 | Draw 3.97 | Teplice 5.22. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 70% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Final | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 56% | Draw 25% | Teplice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Hradec Králové 1.80 / Teplice 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.949 / def 0.889 | Teplice attack 0.852 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Teplice xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Teplice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Hradec Králové 2 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Teplice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (Middle Play-offs - Final) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 56% chance of winning, Teplice a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hradec Králové and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hradec Králové vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.95x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 60 games and Teplice's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
56%
1.80
25%
3.97
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.78
0.98
Teplice xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
3%
31.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.98 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 25W 16D 26L from 67 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 28L across 67 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.36 PPG, Teplice on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 14W 6D 13L from their last 33 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 9W 4D 20L across their last 33 away games, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.16 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Hradec Králové vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 25W 16D 26L in their last 67 games (1.36 PPG), while Teplice have gone 22W 17D 28L in their last 67 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Teplice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.45 PPG; Teplice away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 6, Teplice have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Hradec Králové 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 54%, Teplice 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Hradec Králové and 76% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Teplice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Hradec Králové's games and 67% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hradec Králové and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Hradec Králové's matches and 76% of Teplice's.
Do Hradec Králové and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 70% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Teplice 2-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Middle Play-offs - Final, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.80 xG and Teplice 0.98 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Teplice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 0.89 against Teplice attack 0.85 / defence 1.24, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 56% | Draw 25% | Teplice 19%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 48%, Teplice 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Teplice's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.36 PPG, Teplice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.