Hradec Králové 1-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hradec Králové face Karviná.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Karviná at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 9 March 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Karviná have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Karviná have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.20 PPG, Karviná 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Hradec Králové, 1 for Karviná and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Hradec Králové 0–0 Karviná — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Karviná in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 43% versus Karviná 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 40% | Karviná 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 2.26 xG and Karviná 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.990 / defence 0.904 | Karviná attack 1.005 / defence 1.533. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.175. Karviná's defence rating of 1.533 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hradec Králové's projected output up. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 53 games and Karviná's last 53.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 63% | Draw 21% | Karviná 16%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.58 | Draw 4.75 | Karviná 6.39. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (63%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.26 / 1.07) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Karviná's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 40% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 63% | Draw 21% | Karviná 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Hradec Králové 2.26 / Karviná 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.990 / def 0.904 | Karviná attack 1.005 / def 1.533 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Karviná xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Karviná kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Hradec Králové 1 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Karviná part of?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 63% chance of winning, Karviná a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hradec Králové and Karviná will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hradec Králové vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.99x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 53 games and Karviná's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.75
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.33
1.07
Karviná xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
10%
9.62
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
2%
61.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.07 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 58 games, going 21W 16D 21L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.07 PPG from 58 outings (16W 14D 28L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.36 PPG, Karviná on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 13W 8D 7L across their last 28 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 28 away games (6W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.09 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Karviná
Blended
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Karviná (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Karviná in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 21W 16D 21L in their last 58 games (1.36 PPG), while Karviná have gone 16W 14D 28L in their last 58 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Karviná away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.68 PPG; Karviná away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Karviná in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 23 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karviná have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 May 2025, when Hradec Králové won Karviná 0-4 Hradec Králové.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 4, Karviná have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Karviná last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2025: Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Karviná 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Hradec Králové) and 64% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Karviná in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Karviná matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 57% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hradec Králové and Karviná matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 64% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Karviná matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 82% of Karviná's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Karviná share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 25, as Hradec Králové and Karviná drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 2.26 xG and Karviná 1.07 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Karviná attack 1.00 / defence 1.53, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 63% | Draw 21% | Karviná 16%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 40%, Karviná 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Karviná's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.36 PPG, Karviná 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.