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Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hradec Králové.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Hradec Králové 0-2 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 0.95 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.12 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.10 / defence 0.78, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 32% | Slovan Liberec 38%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 42%, Slovan Liberec 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.42 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights