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Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Slavia Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Slavia Praha 3-1 at Malsovicka arena, Championship Group - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.19 xG and Slavia Praha 1.22 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.02 / defence 0.80 against Slavia Praha attack 1.27 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 35% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 36%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 42%, Slavia Praha 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights