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Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Slavia Praha 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Slavia Praha 2-1 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 0.97 xG and Slavia Praha 1.26 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Slavia Praha attack 1.33 / defence 0.73, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 26% | Draw 33% | Slavia Praha 40%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 42%, Slavia Praha 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights