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Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 0.95 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.07 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.86 / defence 0.82, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 31% | Draw 31% | Sigma Olomouc 38%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 41%, Sigma Olomouc 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.31 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights