Hradec Králové 1-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Hradec Králové welcome Sigma Olomouc to Malsovicka arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's home record at Malsovicka arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Malsovicka arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 1.20 (Sigma Olomouc). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Hradec Králové have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 8 past contests while Sigma Olomouc have managed just 1 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hradec Králové and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 38% versus Sigma Olomouc 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 41% | Sigma Olomouc 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 0.95 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.868 / defence 1.020 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.857 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.229. Data: 35 Hradec Králové games / 35 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 31% | Draw 31% | Sigma Olomouc 38%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Sigma Olomouc 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Sigma Olomouc 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 31% | Draw 31% | Sigma Olomouc 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Hradec Králové 0.95 / Sigma Olomouc 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.868 / def 1.020 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.857 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sigma Olomouc xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové 1 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 31% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (8 meetings): Hradec Králové 4W | Draws 3 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.87x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
31%
3.18
31%
3.27
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.02
1.07
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.07 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 14W 9D 16L from 39 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 15L across 39 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.31 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 8W 6D 5L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 5W 7D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.28 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 14W 10D 15L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.58 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 42%, Sigma Olomouc 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Hradec Králové and 42% for Sigma Olomouc.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 53% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 42% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 0.95 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.07 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.86 / defence 0.82, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 31% | Draw 31% | Sigma Olomouc 38%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 41%, Sigma Olomouc 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.31 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.