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Dominant Plzen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hradec Králové.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Hradec Králové 0-3 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.58 xG and Plzen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Plzen outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.04 / defence 0.77 against Plzen attack 1.14 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 50% | Draw 28% | Plzen 22%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Plzen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 41%, Plzen 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Plzen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights