🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians 1905.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Middle Play-offs - Final, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.14 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.96 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.86 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 31%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 40%, Bohemians 1905 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.40 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights