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Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 22, as Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.06 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 0.81 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.93 / defence 0.73, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 1905 30%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 39%, Bohemians 1905 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.38 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights