Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava – Match Report

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Shock result as Baník Ostrava defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Hradec Králové 0-1 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.30 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.17 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.86 / defence 0.82 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.20 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 31% | Baník Ostrava 31%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 36%, Baník Ostrava 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.37 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights