Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.86) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (1.20x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
38%
2.65
31%
3.24
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.46
1.17
Baník Ostrava xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.17 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.