Hradec Králové 2-4 Artis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Artis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Artis make the trip to FINEP Arena to face Hradec Králové in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hradec Králové have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at FINEP Arena this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at FINEP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Artis (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Artis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Artis's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Hradec Králové's favour (1.40 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Hradec Králové goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Artis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 54% versus Artis 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 54% | Artis 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.36 xG and Artis 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.878 / defence 0.854 | Artis attack 0.824 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.245. Data: 39 Hradec Králové games / 9 Artis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 31% | Artis 22%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Artis 4.55. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 50% | Artis 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Artis | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: FINEP Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 31% | Artis 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Hradec Králové 1.36 / Artis 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.878 / def 0.854 | Artis attack 0.824 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Artis xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Artis kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Artis kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at FINEP Arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Artis?
Hradec Králové 2 - 4 Artis.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Artis being played?
The match is being played at FINEP Arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Artis part of?
Hradec Králové vs Artis is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Artis?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 46% chance of winning, Artis a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Artis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Hradec Králové and Artis will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Artis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Artis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Artis in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Artis (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.88x the league average against Artis's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Artis's attack (0.82x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.20
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.23
0.88
Artis xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
6%
17.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Artis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Artis expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.88 for Artis, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Artis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 5W 2D 4L from 11 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Artis, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 8L across 11 games — 0.45 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Artis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hradec Králové by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Artis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Artis's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Artis are on 0.73 scored and 2.27 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Artis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Artis in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while Artis have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Artis away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.00 PPG; Artis away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Hradec Králové
0
Draws
1
Artis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Artis?
From 1 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 0, Artis have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Artis last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-4 Artis.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Artis?
Artis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 60%, Artis 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Hradec Králové and 60% for Artis. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové have failed to score in 40% of games; Artis in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Artis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Artis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hradec Králové's games and 60% of Artis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Artis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hradec Králové's matches and 60% of Artis's.
Do Hradec Králové and Artis tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Artis in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Artis cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Artis beat Hradec Králové 2-4 at FINEP Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.36 xG and Artis 0.88 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Artis outscored their 0.88 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Artis attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 31% | Artis 22%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Artis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 54%, Artis 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Artis's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.45. Form was overturned, with Artis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Artis (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.