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Zlin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FK Jablonec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zlin beat FK Jablonec 1-3 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.07 xG and Zlin 0.73 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zlin outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.08 / defence 0.77 against Zlin attack 0.83 / defence 0.85, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 40% | Zlin 21%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 15%, Zlin 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Zlin's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with Zlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights