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Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Teplice 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Teplice 1-0 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.38 xG and Teplice 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Teplice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Teplice 31%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 44%, Teplice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Teplice's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights