FK Jablonec 3-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Střelnice.

Teplice (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. FK Jablonec's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Teplice's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: FK Jablonec 3W, Teplice 2W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2023, ended 3–2 with FK Jablonec winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Teplice — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 50% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 39% | Teplice 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.23 xG and Teplice 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.049 / defence 0.886 | Teplice attack 1.005 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.248. Data: 42 FK Jablonec games / 42 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 37% | Draw 32% | Teplice 31%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Teplice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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