FK Jablonec 1-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Stadion Strelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 July 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FK Jablonec haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadion Strelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sparta Praha (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sparta Praha haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. FK Jablonec's 2.20 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Sparta Praha's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sparta Praha, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 3–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 40% versus Sparta Praha 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 54% | Sparta Praha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.36 xG and Sparta Praha 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.071 / defence 0.851 | Sparta Praha attack 1.036 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.313. Data: 30 FK Jablonec games / 30 Sparta Praha games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 32%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Sparta Praha 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Sparta Praha lead the H2H ledger, but FK Jablonec carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 30% | Sparta Praha 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG FK Jablonec 1.36 / Sparta Praha 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.071 / def 0.851 | Sparta Praha attack 1.036 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Sparta Praha xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha part of?
FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 41% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
Record (6 meetings): FK Jablonec 1W | Draws 0 | Sparta Praha 5W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FK Jablonec (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.04x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
41%
2.41
27%
3.74
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.52
1.16
Sparta Praha xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
8%
12.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.16 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, FK Jablonec have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 19W 6D 10L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. FK Jablonec haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sparta Praha's form line: 19W 6D 10L from 35 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. Sparta Praha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.80 for Sparta Praha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FK Jablonec have posted 2.12 PPG from 17 outings (11W 3D 3L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 8W 3D 6L from 17 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.74 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 69%.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Pre-Season
Sparta Praha
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 19W 6D 10L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 19W 6D 10L in their last 35 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Sparta Praha away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.12 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.59 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-5 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 35%, Sparta Praha 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (FK Jablonec) and 53% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 65% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of FK Jablonec's matches and 53% of Sparta Praha's.
Do FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.36 xG and Sparta Praha 1.16 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.07 / defence 0.85 against Sparta Praha attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 32%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 54%, Sparta Praha 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.80 PPG, Sparta Praha 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.