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Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Slovan Liberec 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 at Stadion Strelnice, Championship Group - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.43 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.20 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 31%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 48%, Slovan Liberec 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (66 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (66 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.68 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights