FK Jablonec 2-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga, Championship Group - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FK Jablonec have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Strelnice than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Slovan Liberec's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FK Jablonec, 2 for Slovan Liberec and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 42% versus Slovan Liberec 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 48% | Slovan Liberec 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.43 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.027 / defence 0.966 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.038 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Data: 60 FK Jablonec games / 60 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 31%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Slovan Liberec 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Slovan Liberec 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Group - 5 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG FK Jablonec 1.43 / Slovan Liberec 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.027 / def 0.966 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.038 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Slovan Liberec xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
FK Jablonec 2 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec is a Championship Group - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 41% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
Record (9 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 5 | Slovan Liberec 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 1.03x the league average against Slovan Liberec's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.04x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.57
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.63
1.20
Slovan Liberec xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.20 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 66 games, going 33W 12D 21L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.38 PPG from 66 outings (24W 19D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.38 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 17W 8D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.16 points per game from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.38 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 33W 12D 21L in their last 66 games (1.68 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 24W 19D 23L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slovan Liberec away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.90 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.16 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 0-5 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
5
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 48%, Slovan Liberec 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FK Jablonec) and 48% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 48% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 48% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Slovan Liberec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 at Stadion Strelnice, Championship Group - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.43 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.20 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 31%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 48%, Slovan Liberec 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (66 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (66 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.68 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.