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Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 21, as FK Jablonec and Slovácko drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.57 xG and Slovácko 0.68 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Slovácko attack 0.61 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 16%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 44%, Slovácko 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Slovácko's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights