🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat FK Jablonec 1-2 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.44 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.92 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 22%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 42%, Sigma Olomouc 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights