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Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Pardubice 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Pardubice 3-2 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.75 xG and Pardubice 0.89 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.06 / defence 0.78 against Pardubice attack 0.93 / defence 1.21, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 18%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 45%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Pardubice's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights