🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Pardubice encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Strelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 September 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

FK Jablonec (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.

Pardubice have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in FK Jablonec's favour (2.10 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — FK Jablonec lead 4W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with FK Jablonec winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 40% versus Pardubice 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 45% | Pardubice 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.75 xG and Pardubice 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.061 / defence 0.778 | Pardubice attack 0.930 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.224. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FK Jablonec's defence rating of 0.778 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 FK Jablonec games / 36 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 18%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Pardubice 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Pardubice 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights