FK Jablonec 1-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Střelnice. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in FK Jablonec's favour (1.50 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FK Jablonec lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Pardubice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 49% versus Pardubice 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 46% | Pardubice 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 2.59 xG and Pardubice 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.239 / defence 0.719 | Pardubice attack 0.773 / defence 1.539. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.218. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.539 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FK Jablonec's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 FK Jablonec games / 58 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 78% | Draw 15% | Pardubice 7%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | Pardubice 14.29. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Pardubice 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 78% | Draw 15% | Pardubice 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 46% | xG FK Jablonec 2.59 / Pardubice 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.239 / def 0.719 | Pardubice attack 0.773 / def 1.539 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Pardubice xG
46%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Pardubice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Pardubice kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
FK Jablonec 1 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice part of?
FK Jablonec vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 78% chance of winning, Pardubice a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FK Jablonec and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
Record (6 meetings): FK Jablonec 3W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Pardubice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 1.24x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 2.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.77x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
78%
1.28
15%
6.61
7%
14.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.27
0.68
Pardubice xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.61
15%
Draw
14.39
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
7%
13.34
Win to Nil
40%
2.53
1%
191.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.68 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 22W 20D 21L from 63 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 34L across 63 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FK Jablonec by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 15W 10D 6L from 31 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 7W 5D 19L across 31 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.95 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Pardubice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 22W 20D 21L in their last 63 games (1.37 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 15W 14D 34L in their last 63 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Pardubice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.77 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.84 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Pardubice in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FK Jablonec have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 3-0 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 7, Pardubice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Pardubice 0-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 52%, Pardubice 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FK Jablonec) and 52% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Pardubice in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 42% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 52% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Pardubice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Pardubice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Pardubice 1-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.59 xG and Pardubice 0.68 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.24 / defence 0.72 against Pardubice attack 0.77 / defence 1.54, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 78% | Draw 15% | Pardubice 7%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Pardubice 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pardubice's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.