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FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mlada Boleslav.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Mlada Boleslav 2-0 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.08 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.43 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.20 / defence 0.89 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.27 / defence 1.31, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 51% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 25%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 49%, Mlada Boleslav 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights