FK Jablonec 1-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 36%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FK Jablonec welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Strelnice in Czech Liga (Championship Group - 2). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
FK Jablonec's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Hradec Králové have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for FK Jablonec, 2 for Hradec Králové and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended FK Jablonec 0–2 Hradec Králové — a Hradec Králové win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 40% versus Hradec Králové 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 46% | Hradec Králové 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.23 xG and Hradec Králové 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.025 / defence 0.964 | Hradec Králové attack 1.049 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 60 games and Hradec Králové's last 60.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 35%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.81 | Draw 3.40 | Hradec Králové 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 50% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Group - 2 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.23 / Hradec Králové 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.025 / def 0.964 | Hradec Králové attack 1.049 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Hradec Králové xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové part of?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (Championship Group - 2) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 36% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 60 games and Hradec Králové's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
36%
2.81
29%
3.40
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.44
1.21
Hradec Králové xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.21 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 65 games, going 33W 12D 20L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.51 PPG from 65 outings (28W 14D 23L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.71 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 17W 8D 6L across their last 31 home games, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.29 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Hradec Králové in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 33W 12D 20L in their last 65 games (1.71 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 28W 14D 23L in their last 65 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Hradec Králové away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.90 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.32 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Sep 2022, when FK Jablonec won FK Jablonec 3-0 Hradec Králové.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Hradec Králové 1-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 45%, Hradec Králové 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FK Jablonec) and 55% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 45% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 55% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 68% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Strelnice, Championship Group - 2, as FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.23 xG and Hradec Králové 1.21 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Hradec Králové attack 1.05 / defence 0.87, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 35%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.71 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.