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FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Strelnice, Championship Group - 2, as FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.23 xG and Hradec Králové 1.21 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Hradec Králové attack 1.05 / defence 0.87, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 35%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.71 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights