FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Dukla Praha 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Dukla Praha 2-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 3.11 xG and Dukla Praha 0.52 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.43 / defence 0.76 against Dukla Praha attack 0.59 / defence 1.46, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 87% | Draw 11% | Dukla Praha 3%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 87%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 47%, Dukla Praha 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights