FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 1.43x the league average against Dukla Praha's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 3.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 4-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
87%
1.15
11%
9.46
3%
35.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
4 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.11
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.64
0.52
Dukla Praha xG
1.15
87%
Home win
9.46
11%
Draw
35.97
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
4%
22.51
Win to Nil
51%
1.95
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 3.11 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.52 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 87%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.