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Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.40 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.19 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.08 / defence 1.07 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 31%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 45%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights