🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 7 December 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion Strelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bohemians 1905 have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in FK Jablonec's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Bohemians 1905 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with FK Jablonec winning.

It is worth noting that Bohemians 1905 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 41% versus Bohemians 1905 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 45% | Bohemians 1905 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.40 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.077 / defence 1.071 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.870 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.276. Data: 47 FK Jablonec games / 47 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 31%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1905 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

Bohemians 1905 lead the H2H ledger, but FK Jablonec carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 60% | Bohemians 1905 40%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights