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Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat FK Jablonec 0-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.72 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.29 / defence 0.84 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 55% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 19%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Bohemians 1905 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.31 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights