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Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Baník Ostrava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Baník Ostrava 4-1 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.30 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.83 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 46% | Draw 32% | Baník Ostrava 22%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 44%, Baník Ostrava 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.79 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights