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Dominant Teplice run riot with a 0-3 hammering of České Budějovice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat České Budějovice 0-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Relegation Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.09 xG and Teplice 1.37 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Teplice outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.78 / defence 1.40 against Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 30% | Draw 27% | Teplice 43%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 60%, Teplice 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

České Budějovice's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Teplice's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Teplice arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights