🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Teplice (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as České Budějovice face Teplice.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

České Budějovice (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

České Budějovice's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 games at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Teplice have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Teplice are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for České Budějovice, 4 for Teplice and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 48% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 60% | Teplice 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.09 xG and Teplice 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.780 / defence 1.404 | Teplice attack 0.809 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 České Budějovice games / 60 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 30% | Draw 27% | Teplice 43%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 40% | Teplice 70%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights