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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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České Budějovice and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 29, as České Budějovice and Teplice drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.05 xG and Teplice 1.50 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.75 / defence 1.52 against Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 26% | Draw 28% | Teplice 47%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 61%, Teplice 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

České Budějovice's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Teplice's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Teplice arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights