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Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out České Budějovice 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat České Budějovice 2-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.71 xG and FK Jablonec 1.50 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.51 / defence 1.30 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 18% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 56%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 61%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

České Budějovice's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.66. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights