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Stalemate at České Budějovice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

České Budějovice and Dukla Praha finished level at 0-0 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.18 xG and Dukla Praha 1.15 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dukla Praha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.58 / defence 1.39 against Dukla Praha attack 0.68 / defence 1.34, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 35% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 34%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 63%, Dukla Praha 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

České Budějovice's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 74% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Dukla Praha arrived the stronger side — 0.63 PPG against 0.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights