České Budějovice 0-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as České Budějovice welcome Dukla Praha to Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, České Budějovice stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, České Budějovice have gone 0W 2D 8L this season (10 games, 0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Dukla Praha have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: České Budějovice 0.20 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for České Budějovice, 1 for Dukla Praha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Dukla Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
České Budějovice trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 74% of games.
Dukla Praha trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 26% versus Dukla Praha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 63% | Dukla Praha 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.18 xG and Dukla Praha 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.577 / defence 1.392 | Dukla Praha attack 0.679 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.219. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.577 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dukla Praha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing České Budějovice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 České Budějovice games / 19 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 35% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 34%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Dukla Praha 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on České Budějovice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 10% | Dukla Praha 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 35% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG České Budějovice 1.18 / Dukla Praha 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.577 / def 1.392 | Dukla Praha attack 0.679 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Dukla Praha xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha kick off?
České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha?
České Budějovice 0 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha part of?
České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 35% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both České Budějovice and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Dukla Praha?
Record (1 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 0 | Dukla Praha 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Dukla Praha in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.58) and Dukla Praha's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.19
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.33
1.15
Dukla Praha xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.15 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
České Budějovice come into this having played 19 games, going 0W 3D 16L for 0.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dukla Praha sit at 0.63 PPG from 19 outings (3W 3D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dukla Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
České Budějovice's home form reads 0W 2D 7L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Dukla Praha have taken 0.22 points per game from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 0.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dukla Praha's season.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 0.37 goals scored and 2.95 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.79 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 0W 3D 16L in their last 19 games (0.16 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 3W 3D 13L in their last 19 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Dukla Praha away?
České Budějovice's home record (0.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 0.22 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2024, when Dukla Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
2
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Dukla Praha?
From 3 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Dukla Praha have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Dukla Praha 2-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Dukla Praha?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — České Budějovice 11% BTTS, Dukla Praha 44%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (České Budějovice) and 56% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 89% of games; Dukla Praha in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 44% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of České Budějovice's recent games and 56% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at České Budějovice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice and Dukla Praha finished level at 0-0 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.18 xG and Dukla Praha 1.15 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dukla Praha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.58 / defence 1.39 against Dukla Praha attack 0.68 / defence 1.34, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 35% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 34%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 63%, Dukla Praha 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 74% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dukla Praha arrived the stronger side — 0.63 PPG against 0.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.