České Budějovice 0-4 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Baník Ostrava at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 0W 3D 7L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Baník Ostrava's 2.10 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of České Budějovice's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, České Budějovice have won 3, Baník Ostrava 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
České Budějovice in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 50% versus Baník Ostrava 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 62% | Baník Ostrava 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 0.76 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.636 / defence 1.361 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.019 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.200. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.636 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Baník Ostrava's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 České Budějovice games / 53 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 17% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 59%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | Baník Ostrava 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 10% | Baník Ostrava 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 17% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG České Budějovice 0.76 / Baník Ostrava 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.636 / def 1.361 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.019 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Baník Ostrava xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
České Budějovice 0 - 4 Baník Ostrava.
Where is České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 17% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (7 meetings): České Budějovice 3W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 4W.
What form are České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 3.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.64x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
17%
5.96
24%
4.14
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.42
1.66
Baník Ostrava xG
5.96
17%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
3%
31.42
28%
3.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.8 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.66 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 8W 13D 37L from 58 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 28W 10D 20L across 58 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 8W 6D 15L from 29 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 13W 5D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
České Budějovice are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.19 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.59 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 13D 37L in their last 58 games (0.64 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 28W 10D 20L in their last 58 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.03 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.52 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Baník Ostrava go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2025, when Baník Ostrava won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
0
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when České Budějovice 0-4 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 41%, Baník Ostrava 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (České Budějovice) and 55% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 48% of games; Baník Ostrava in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 52% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of České Budějovice's matches and 55% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 0-4 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat České Budějovice 0-4 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.76 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.66 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.64 / defence 1.36 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.02 / defence 0.78, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 17% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 59%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 62%, Baník Ostrava 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.