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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dukla Praha and Vyškov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha and Vyškov finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Juliska, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.12 xG and Vyškov 1.12 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Vyškov attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 29% | Vyškov 35%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 67%, Vyškov 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Vyškov's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dukla Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vyškov scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights