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Poisson rates Dukla Praha at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dukla Praha vs Vyškov encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Dukla Praha and Vyškov meet at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 June 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Dukla Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Stadion Juliska, Dukla Praha have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Juliska this season.

Vyškov (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.33 points per game. Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Vyškov have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

The points-per-game gap of 1.17 in Dukla Praha's favour (1.50 vs 0.33) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dukla Praha 0W, Vyškov 0W, 1D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Dukla Praha — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Vyškov — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dukla Praha 67% | Vyškov 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dukla Praha 67% | Vyškov 0%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.12 xG and Vyškov 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.715 / defence 1.092 | Vyškov attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.203. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Dukla Praha games / 0 Vyškov games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 29% | Vyškov 35%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Vyškov 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 70% | Vyškov 0% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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